스포츠베팅 | Cases and Studies in Sports Betting | 体育博彩
- date : 2015-05-20 01:10|hit : 2430
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- Article] Optimal strategies for sports betting pools
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DocNo of ILP: 4084
Doc. Type: Article
Title: Optimal strategies for sports betting pools
Authors: Clair, B; Letscher, D
Full Name of Authors: Clair, Bryan; Letscher, David
Keywords by Author:
Keywords Plus: NCAA BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT; MARCH MADNESS; OUTCOMES
Abstract: Every fall, millions of Americans enter betting pools to pick winners of the weekly NFL football games. In the spring, NCAA tournament basketball pools are even more popular. In both cases, teams that are popularly perceived as "favorites" gain a disproportionate share of entries. In large pools there can be a significant advantage to picking upsets that differentiate your picks from the crowd. In this paper, we present a model of betting pools that incorporates pool participant behavior. We use the model to derive strategies that maximize the expected return on a bet in both football pools and tournament-style pools. These strategies significantly outperform strategies based on maximizing score or number of correct picks-often by orders of magnitude.
Cate of OECD: Economics and business
Year of Publication: 2007
Business Area: lottery
Detail Business: sport betting
Country: Germany
Study Area: winner, behavior
Name of Journal: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Language: English
Country of Authors: [Clair, Bryan; Letscher, David] St Louis Univ, Dept Math & Comp Sci, St Louis, MO 63103 USA
Press Adress: Clair, B (reprint author), St Louis Univ, Dept Math & Comp Sci, St Louis, MO 63103 USA.
Email Address: bryan@slu.edu; letscher@slu.edu
Citaion:
Funding:
Lists of Citation: Boulier BL, 1999, INT J FORECASTING, V15, P83, DOI 10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00067-3; BRADLEY RA, 1952, BIOMETRIKA, V39, P324, DOI 10.1093/biomet/39.3-4.324; BREITER DJ, 1997, CHANCE, V10, P5; Caudill SB, 2002, J APPL STAT, V29, P991, DOI 10.1080/0266476022000006694; Caudill SB, 2003, INT J FORECASTING, V19, P313, DOI 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00008-0; CLAIR B, 2005, 2005 MENS NCAA BASKE; DUNNETT CW, 1955, BIOMETRIKA, V42, P258, DOI 10.2307/2333441; KAPLAN EH, 2003, OR MS TODAY, V30, P38; Kaplan EH, 2001, MANAGE SCI, V47, P369, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.47.3.369.9769; Kvam P, 2006, NAV RES LOG, V53, P788, DOI 10.1002/nav.20170; Metrick A, 1996, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V30, P159, DOI 10.1016/S0167-2681(96)00855-4; SAGARIN J, 2004, SAGARIN RATINGS
Number of Citaion: 12
Publication: INFORMS
City of Publication: HANOVER
Address of Publication: 7240 PARKWAY DR, STE 310, HANOVER, MD 21076-1344 USA
ISSN: 0030-364X
29-Character Source Abbreviation: OPER RES
ISO Source Abbreviation: Oper. Res.
Volume: 55
Version: 6
Start of File: 1163
End of File: 1177
DOI: 10.1287/opre.1070.0448
Number of Pages: 15
Web of Science Category: Management; Operations Research & Management Science
Subject Category: Business & Economics; Operations Research & Management Science
Document Delivery Number: 244JO
Unique Article Identifier: WOS:000251862400011
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